
Trump held off on imposing broad tariffs on his first day in office and ordered reviews of trade deficits and currency practices. In remarks, he also raised the prospect of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as February 1.
The mixed signals keep trade-war risk alive for U.S. feed and grain exports to Canada and Mexico, which are major buyers. The dollar weakened on the news, supporting dollar-priced commodities.
After 39 past bearish trade events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (26% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.0%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trump holding off on broad tariffs on day one and ordering only reviews eased trade-war fears, reducing demand for the dollar.