
The euro and yen held most of their gains against the dollar after weak US manufacturing data and new trade threats. The dollar was hit by US tariffs on metals imports from Argentina and Brazil and by threatened tariffs on European goods.
Markets treated the trade moves as background noise.
Trade tensions weighing on the dollar can lift dollar-priced commodities, but the reaction was muted. Tariffs on Brazilian and Argentine goods may also shift trade flows at the margin.
After 39 past bearish trade events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (26% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.0%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 12 past bullish trade events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.