EU wheat and rapeseed hit lows as tariff battle heats up

After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2023US wheat exports expected to hit 52-year low | Agriculture Dive-4.8%
• May 11, 2017France raised its forecast for wheat and barley export-2.4%
• May 31, 2019U.S. grains: Trump tariff threat pushes corn, soy, wheat lower - Grainews+9.4%
• Feb 26, 2018Tops in Wheat, Russia Moves Up as a Feed Grain Exporter+1.4%
• May 29, 20182018-18 - Grain and Seed Exports Program – India – Increased tariffs for wheat, walnuts in shell and shelled almonds - DAFF-0.9%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Dec 28, 2017As World Eats More Meat, US Soy Losing Battle To Feed Animals | ESM Magazine+0.4%
• Jan 2, 2018As world eats more meat, U.S. soy losing battle to feed animals | Bowling Green Daily News+0.7%
• Sep 18, 2018Trump’s tariffs rattle Korea a bit+2.1%
• May 31, 2019U.S. grains: Trump tariff threat pushes corn, soy, wheat lower - Grainews-2.3%
• Apr 4, 2018USDA: Tariffs Proposed by China Would Hit $16.5B in US Ag Exports+1.2%

After 12 past bullish trade events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 13, 2025EU wheat rises as export demand stirs-0.4%
• Dec 3, 2019Euro holds gains vs dollar hit by trade tariffs and weak data-0.1%
• Jan 29, 2018French wheat export target at risk as competition bites – Customs Today Newspaper+0.2%
• May 25, 2025Trump delays EU tariffs until July 9, European markets rally+0.7%
• May 7, 2025Amino acids markets see stable lysine and methionine amid tariff shifts - Food & Agribusiness-1.5%