France Export Cereales said French non-EU wheat exports will likely fall short of the 9.3 million tonne forecast from FranceAgriMer, which has cut its outlook three times this season. Exports to non-EU countries totalled 3.55 million tonnes in the first half of the season.
Competition from Russia and Argentina, a stronger euro and rain-hampered port loading are cited as reasons.
Weak French export demand against Black Sea and Argentine competition keeps European wheat prices under pressure, adding to global wheat supply that weighs on feed grain alternatives.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 12 past bullish trade events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.