Analysts expect Russia and the EU to compete closely for the top wheat exporter spot in the 2017/18 marketing season starting July 1, with Strategie Grains forecasting Russian exports at 29.6 million tonnes and EU exports at 28.6 million tonnes. Russia's wheat stocks are projected to reach a record 12-13 million tonnes by July.
Strong competition from Russia, the EU and Australia points to ample export supply, which analysts say could push world wheat prices lower into late summer if weather stays normal.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.