Russia exported 18.3 million tons of grain in the 2016/17 marketing year through December 14, down 1.8% from a year earlier. The Agriculture Ministry cut its full-year export forecast to 35 million tons, while the crop was estimated at 118 million tons versus 104.8 million a year earlier.
A record Russian crop is a large supply overhang for wheat, though the cut in export forecasts shows port and handling constraints are limiting how much reaches world markets.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.