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USDA's September assessment keeps 2026/27 US wheat exports at 775 million bushels, but cuts hard red winter export forecasts by 15 million bushels and hard red spring by 5 million, while white wheat rises by 20 million. Exports are expected to slip to fifth place globally as drought limits US supply and Canada and Australia harvest strongly.
Lower US hard red wheat export expectations reduce demand for US supplies and weigh on US wheat prices, while competing origins gain share in export markets.
grainchronicle.comSep 21, 2026After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
