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Expana reports that the EU 2025/26 harvest was a record and global wheat supply is abundant, with demand not rising fast enough to absorb it. Russia and the US are competing strongly, and Algeria is shifting purchases toward Black Sea and other origins.
Abundant global supply and intense export competition keep pressure on wheat export prices, with limited demand growth to offset it.
expanamarkets.comNov 26, 2025After 375 past bearish trade events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
