
Ukraine shipped 8.96 million metric tons of wheat in July-November 2024, well above the prior-year level of 5.8 million. About 55% of the maximum export volume approved under the Memorandum of Understanding was shipped in the first five months of the season.
Strong Ukrainian wheat export pace adds supply to world markets, which is mildly bearish for wheat prices.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.