
Ukraine exported almost 29 million tonnes of grain from July 2016 through February 23, including 13.3 million tonnes of wheat, 10.5 million tonnes of maize and 4.6 million tonnes of barley. Ukrainian farmers plan to export a record 41.6 million tonnes in the 2016-17 marketing year, and 2016 grain harvest reached a record 65.95 million tonnes.
A record Ukrainian export program and large harvest add supply to global wheat, corn and barley markets, which is bearish for export prices, particularly as buyers shift purchases to Ukrainian origin.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.