Ukraine exported 21.2 million tons of grains from the start of the July 2016 season through December 23, up about 6% year on year, with wheat at 10.9 million tons and corn at about 6 million tons. The ministry expects corn exports to pick up and total grain exports to exceed 41 million tons, and the 2016 grain crop is estimated at a record 64.2 million tons.
A record Ukrainian harvest combined with strong export pace adds bearish supply pressure on wheat and corn, although expected corn export acceleration would absorb some of that surplus.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.