Ukraine has exported 40.04 million tonnes of grain and pulses so far in the 2024/25 marketing year, including 1.668 million tonnes shipped in June. Corn exports stand at 21.6 million tonnes, versus 28.4 million a year earlier, while wheat is at 15.6 million tonnes compared with 18.1 million.
Ukraine is also seeking new markets after losing visa-free trade access with the EU.
Lower corn and wheat export pace versus last year reduces competing supply in export markets, which is mildly supportive. Shifts in trade routes could alter where Ukrainian grain is sourced by feed buyers.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.