Ukraine exported 38.6 million tonnes of grain from July 1, 2018 through April 9, 2019, up 20% year on year, according to Reuters. Corn exports exceeded 20 million tonnes, while wheat shipments fell 7.6% and barley exports fell 20%.
Strong cumulative Ukrainian corn exports signal ample competing supply in export markets, which is mildly bearish for corn prices, while lower wheat and barley shipments point to tighter Black Sea wheat and barley availability.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.