Ukrainian agricultural exports rose 41% in volume and 22% in value in September versus August, reaching 3.0 million tons worth $1.6 billion. Wheat shipments to the Middle East and North Africa nearly doubled, while the average price per ton fell about 14%.
Stronger Ukrainian wheat flows into MENA add competing supply to importers, while the 14% drop in average price signals softer export pricing for Black Sea wheat.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.