
US wheat net sales are running at their slowest pace in 50 years, with exports to China at 379,000 tonnes versus 616,200 tonnes a year earlier. Soft red winter commitments are at a nine-year high, and HRW and HRS have lost some premium to Chicago futures.
Weak export demand and record-high SRW commitments point to a bearish near-term outlook for US wheat, with price support depending on whether bargain buying turns into sustained export sales.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.