
Private exporters cancelled 264,000 tonnes of US soft red winter wheat booked for China, confirmed by USDA on March 11. This followed cancellations of 240,000 tonnes earlier in March, as Russian wheat undercut US prices and US crop conditions improved.
SRW futures fell to their lowest since August 2020.
Cancelled Chinese purchases remove US export demand and add to bearish pressure on SRW prices. Cheaper Russian wheat will keep competing for feed and milling demand in importing countries.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.