Russian wheat exports remain biggest risk to U.S. wheat elevators

After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Nov 22, 2021Russian wheat exports on the rise - The Sizov Report blog-0.1%
• Sep 23, 2025Russia’s wheat exports from Black Sea ports fall to 460kt-0.2%
• May 11, 2023Explainer: Have Western sanctions on Russia impacted its wheat exports? | Reuters-1.1%
• Sep 15, 2017Ukraine and Russia in August exported 2.8 million tons of wheat to Asia — Latifundist.com+0.7%
• May 24, 2019Russian grain exports forecast to rise | 2019-05-24 | World Grain-12.2%

After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Sep 15, 2017Ukraine and Russia in August exported 2.8 million tons of wheat to Asia — Latifundist.com+6.8%
• Nov 20, 2018Wheat price held hostage to pace of Russian exports - Farmers Weekly-3.3%
• Sep 25, 2023Terrain | Cheap Russian Wheat Puts Lid on U.S. Wheat Prices-6.7%
• Jun 19, 2017Russia 2017/18 wheat exports seen at record, Ukraine down 18% – Customs Today Newspaper-2.0%
• Feb 27, 2019Russia could still export 4-5 million tons of wheat+1.9%