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Russian wheat exports rose to 0.82 million tonnes in the week ended 17 November 2021, according to customs data. Sizov estimates November exports at 3.2 million tonnes, and an export quota for February to June 2022 is expected.
The Black Sea to Matif spread narrowed to about $4 per tonne.
Stronger Russian shipments and a narrowed price spread increase competitive Black Sea supply in world wheat markets. Expected export quotas could also cap Russian shipments later in the season.
blog.sizov.reportAndrey SizovNov 22, 2021After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
