
FranceAgriMer kept its forecast for French soft wheat shipments outside the EU in the 2024/25 season at 3.5 million tonnes. That is down about two-thirds from last season and the smallest volume this century.
The decline reflects a poor crop, a dispute with Algeria and rivalry from Russian supply.
Weaker French export sales leave more wheat in the EU market, which is bearish for European wheat values and reduces the country's share of global export demand.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.