Wheat price held hostage to pace of Russian exports

After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Sep 23, 2025Russia’s wheat exports from Black Sea ports fall to 460kt-0.2%
• Dec 7, 2022Wheat prices touch 14-month low on surging Russian exports - Nikkei Asia+10.0%
• Feb 2, 2021Record wheat exports from Russia increases pressure on prices+0.3%
• Sep 25, 2023Explainer: Why are Russian export prices roiling the wheat market? | Reuters-2.7%
• Nov 22, 2021Russian wheat exports on the rise - The Sizov Report blog-0.1%

After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Dec 7, 2022Wheat prices touch 14-month low on surging Russian exports - Nikkei Asia+4.4%
• Feb 2, 2021Record wheat exports from Russia increases pressure on prices+2.3%
• Sep 25, 2023Explainer: Why are Russian export prices roiling the wheat market? | Reuters-6.7%
• Feb 27, 2019Russia could still export 4-5 million tons of wheat+1.9%
• Sep 25, 2023Terrain | Cheap Russian Wheat Puts Lid on U.S. Wheat Prices-6.7%