
China may cancel more US corn purchases after cancelling 832,000 tons in three weeks, as Brazilian corn is about $30 a ton cheaper for third-quarter delivery. Chinese hog producers are also substituting wheat for corn in feed rations as weak demand persists.
Cheaper Brazilian supply and feed substitution reduce import demand for US corn, pressuring Chicago corn futures and US export basis.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.