USDA analysis of IGC export prices shows Russian Black Sea and EU wheat became more competitive than US wheat between December 2018 and February 2019. USDA adjusted its estimate of EU exports up 1 million tonnes and US exports down 1 million tonnes.
Cheaper Black Sea and EU origins are taking export share from US wheat, which weighs on US wheat export prices. Australia's drought premiums are limiting its ability to compete in key markets.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.