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The European Commission cut its 2025-26 EU soft wheat export forecast to 29.5 million tonnes from 31 million, raising end-season stocks to 13 million tonnes. Barley exports were raised to 11 million tonnes on strong demand.
Lower EU export volumes lift projected EU stocks, which is bearish for wheat prices, while firmer barley export demand partly offsets this for barley.
graincentral.comGuest AuthorFeb 3, 2026After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
