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A COFCO International trader reports that Australia's wheat harvest is nearing completion and crop size is closer to 22 million tonnes than the feared 20 million. Attention is moving to export demand, with an export task around 16 million tonnes, down from about 7 million tonnes more last season, and Black Sea and Argentine wheat priced US$25-30/t below Australian ASW.
Lower export demand for Australian wheat and price competition from cheaper Black Sea and Argentine supplies are bearish for Australian wheat values.
graincentral.comGuest AuthorJan 11, 2018After 375 past bearish trade events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
