Wheat prices rose on Friday and Wednesday on rumours of a US-China trade deal before new tariffs, but fell over the week as weak demand weighed on the market. Paris March futures dropped to 184 €/t while Chicago HRW and SRW futures also eased, and Russian wheat gained competitiveness after an Egyptian tender win.
Weak export demand and a possible US-China deal have pushed grain values lower, which tends to keep feed wheat cheap relative to corn for buyers. Rising Russian offers, despite lower competitiveness, signal supply pressure that could cap further rallies.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.