India plans to require methyl bromide fumigation of imported grain at the country of origin after March 31, which would restrict wheat cargoes from Russia, France and Ukraine. The move is intended to curb imports before the April harvest, with India's 2017 wheat output forecast at 96.64 million tonnes.
India's import slowdown removes a major source of demand for Black Sea and European wheat, which is bearish for world wheat prices and export flows.
After 375 past bearish trade events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.