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India doubled its basic customs duty on wheat imports from 10% to 20%, effective via a notification on November 8. It also imposed a 50% duty on peas to curb cheaper shipments from Canada.
The move aims to protect domestic farmers and encourage larger wheat plantings.
A higher Indian import tariff cuts demand for imported wheat, mainly from Australia and Canada, which is bearish for world wheat prices.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.