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A Reuters poll of 21 analysts forecasts Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will raise wheat exports 5% to 66 million tonnes in 2021/22, starting 1 July. The combined 2021 wheat crop is seen falling 1% to 124 million tonnes.
Russia's floating export tax, changed weekly, is cited as the main challenge for traders.
Larger Black Sea export supply adds competition for buyers and tends to pressure wheat export prices. Strong feed wheat demand, as buyers substitute away from expensive corn, partly offsets that pressure.
esmmagazine.comDayeeta DasJun 16, 2021After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
