Ukraine's corn and wheat exports have nearly returned to seasonal-average levels since the Black Sea Grain Initiative was signed in July 2022. In December Ukraine exported over 3.0 million tonnes of corn, the largest monthly volume since the war began, plus 1.6 million tonnes of wheat.
The agreement was set to expire in mid-March 2023 with uncertain renewal.
Restored Ukrainian flows have eased international wheat and corn price pressure that spiked after the port blockade, but expiry risk could tighten global feed grain supplies again.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.