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Ukraine is forecast to export about 40 million tonnes of grain and 15 million tonnes of oilseeds, oils and meals in 2025/26, roughly 20% below pre-war levels. Over 90% of Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports move through Odesa-region ports, and alternative routes are being developed.
Rabobank says a severe disruption to that corridor would be needed to shift exports meaningfully.
Reduced Ukrainian export capacity tightens global grain supply, supporting corn and wheat prices, though alternative routes limit the upside.
sfs.org.auMar 1, 2026After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
