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Farm Futures analyst Jacqueline Holland says USDA expects 2021/22 US soybean exports to fall 205 million bushels to 2.08 billion bushels. China has accounted for 56% of expected 2020/21 US soybean exports, with the 2021 crop unlikely to meet new-crop demand potential.
Expected lower export volumes and a tight new-crop balance sheet support soybean prices, while dependence on Chinese buying keeps the export outlook sensitive to trade flows.
farmprogress.comJacqueline HollandJun 11, 2021After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
