UkrAgroConsult says Black Sea wheat exporters (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan) shipped about 39 million tonnes in the first half of the 2018/19 season, up 5% year on year and 25% above 2016/17. The region supplied roughly 35% of world wheat demand in 2017/18 and is expected to keep growing its share.
Strong Black Sea export pace and a likely good 2019/20 crop point to ample competitive wheat supply, which tends to cap world wheat prices and pressure feed-wheat alternatives.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.