Fundamental factors stopped speculative price increases for wheat

After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Dec 5, 2019After a speculative jump in wheat prices continue to decline-3.9%
• Oct 20, 2026Weak demand for US wheat increases price pressure on Ukrainian and EU markets-0.7%
• Feb 2, 2021Record wheat exports from Russia increases pressure on prices+0.3%
• Mar 11, 2019EU competitive pricing explains late-season spike in wheat sales: USDA - Grain Central+1.1%
• Jun 24, 2024Improved U.S. Wheat Price Competitiveness Helps Drive Exports | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service-6.8%

After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Dec 5, 2019After a speculative jump in wheat prices continue to decline-2.3%
• Oct 20, 2026Weak demand for US wheat increases price pressure on Ukrainian and EU markets-4.6%
• Feb 2, 2021Record wheat exports from Russia increases pressure on prices+2.3%
• Mar 11, 2019EU competitive pricing explains late-season spike in wheat sales: USDA - Grain Central+4.3%
• Jun 24, 2024Improved U.S. Wheat Price Competitiveness Helps Drive Exports | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service+1.1%