
US soybeans harvested in 2017 had a lower protein content of 34.1%, tied for the lowest since measurement began in 1986. Brazilian soybeans, at around 37% protein, are winning share in China, the largest buyer.
Brazilian beans also earn a premium of about 15 cents per bushel over US supplies.
Lower US protein weakens demand for US soybeans in China and shifts meal purchases toward Brazil. This pressures US soybean export prices and reduces the value of US soymeal.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.