
US farmers are expected to shift acreage back toward corn and wheat in 2019 after planting a record soybean area this year. China has bought almost no US soybeans for months because of the trade war, pushing soybean prices to a decade low.
USDA's first 2019 planting estimate was due later that day.
Expected acreage shifts toward corn and wheat in 2019 point to larger future supplies of those grains, which is bearish for them, while soybean supply tightens less than the current glut suggests.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.