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Bloomberg reports that President Trump's trade war with China is expected to shift US planting from soybeans to corn for next year. China has stopped buying US soybeans during a bumper US harvest, soybean futures have fallen to a decade low, and some growers face wide basis discounts.
Illinois lacks storage for about 100 million bushels.
Lost Chinese demand and a large carryover weigh on soybean prices, while expected acreage shifts toward corn add to corn supply outlook. Bearish for soybeans and soybean meal, and bearish for corn over the coming season.
ttnews.comIsis Almeida, Lydia MulvanyOct 12, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
