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Analysts expect a renewed Trump trade war with China to cut U.S. farm exports, as China has diversified supplies toward Brazil, Argentina and Australia. U.S. corn and soybean prices were already at their lowest since 2020 earlier in the year.
Lost Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans and corn pressures domestic prices, while Brazilian supply gains reinforce competitive pressure on U.S. export share.
farmprogress.comBloombergDec 12, 2024After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
