
USDA's GAIN reports say China's overall feed demand is down, though less than expected, as ASF cuts the swine herd. Losses are offset by growing poultry, egg and aquaculture feed use.
Chinese purchases of U.S. grain and feed under the Phase One deal have not yet materialized, and tariff-rate quotas and competition remain barriers.
Unrealized Chinese purchase commitments keep U.S. feed grain export expectations uncertain, while modest domestic feed demand softness limits upside.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.