
Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling on May 14, even as China bought 198,000 tons of mostly old-crop US beans and 20,000 tons of soybean oil. Beijing reportedly wants to renegotiate the Phase One agreement, which Washington has refused, and Brazil and Paraguay planned to release Parana River water to aid Argentine shipments.
Chinese purchases support US soy demand, but the reported push to renegotiate Phase One adds uncertainty that limits upside for soybeans and soybean oil.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.