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Rabobank's Stephen Nicholson said US soybean futures have held up relatively well, but basis levels are weakening in the US interior due to no demand at the Gulf or Pacific Northwest. No confirmed Chinese purchases of US new-crop soybeans have been made, and he sees little optimism for shipments to China soon.
Weak US basis and absent Chinese demand reduce farmer returns and signal continued pressure on US soybean prices until a trade resolution.
brownfieldagnews.comCarah HartSep 30, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
