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Details of the U.S.-China phase one deal show that the $40-50 billion farm purchase pledge is a ramp-up, with an expected return to pre-trade-war import levels of $20-24 billion in the first year. Chinese officials publicly confirmed intentions to increase imports of U.S. agriculture and consumer goods.
The first-year purchase target is far below the headline figure, so the realistic near-term demand boost for U.S. grains and oilseeds is smaller than the $40-50 billion suggests.
brownfieldagnews.comOct 28, 2019After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
