
Brazilian safrinha corn harvest has begun in Mato Grosso, with private forecasts of 110-112 million tonnes against CONAB's 114.6Mt and USDA's 116Mt. China has started buying Brazilian corn, which trades US$20-30 cheaper than US origin.
US December corn returned above 710 cents per bushel after a brief dip on Ukraine corridor headlines.
Chinese demand for cheaper Brazilian corn supports Brazilian export prices and competes with US corn, while uncertainty over Brazil's crop size adds some support.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.