China’s US soybean and pork imports down 55.3 per cent due to trade war, African swine fever

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2018Why China’s pork producers can survive without US soybean imports | South China Morning Post-1.6%
• May 23, 2025US farmers feel pain as soybean exports to China flatline despite tariff truce | South China Morning Post-2.4%
• Jul 11, 2018Why US-China trade war is weakening the South African rand | CNBC Africa-1.5%
• Aug 23, 2021African Swine Fever Recovery in China, a Variable Impacting Feed, Pork Imports+5.1%
• Jun 23, 2025US farmers face tough outlook as China switches suppliers amid trade war | South China Morning Post-3.8%

After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jul 31, 2026Chinese buyers acquire US soybeans for October-November, traders say | South China Morning Post-0.6%
• Dec 3, 2018Trump’s trade war sees US soybean exports heading south-0.1%
• May 15, 2017USSEC Provides Soy Trade Price Risk Management Training to Chinese Soy Crushers and Feed Millers - U.S. Soybean Export Council-0.9%
• Aug 17, 2018Soybean bulls and bears both watching China and trade talks-6.2%
• Nov 14, 2025U.S.–China Soybean Deal: Comparing Past Export Levels and Global Market Impacts - Center for Commercial Agriculture-3.4%

After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Sep 26, 2018Graphic: Crop chop - China shuns U.S. soybeans amid trade war, turns to Brazil-4.8%
• Jan 16, 2018For US Soybean Growers, Trade War Is Here-0.4%
• May 28, 2020Soybean Retreats From Two-Week High on US-China Trade Concerns-4.5%
• Jul 25, 2018Why the EU Was Already Likely to Import More U.S. Soybeans - Bloomberg+0.2%
• Nov 3, 2022Brazil moves closer to China corn exports as Beijing approves traders | Reuters+0.1%