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DTN reports that USDA data show China raised soybean purchases from Brazil by 7.19 million mt in the first quarter of 2017-18 while cutting purchases from the US by 5.37 mmt. Tensions are rising over possible US steel and aluminum tariffs and a US intellectual property investigation into China, which China has vowed to answer.
Shifting Chinese buying toward Brazil and the threat of retaliatory tariffs weigh on US soybean export demand and prices, while supporting Brazilian export premiums.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanJan 16, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
