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Bloomberg analysts surveyed expect Brazil's soybean planted area to rise only 1.8% in the 2019-2020 season, the slowest expansion in 13 years. Growers cite trade-war uncertainty, African swine fever weakening Asian feed demand, and hot, dry weather delaying fieldwork.
Brazil is still expected to surpass the U.S. as the largest soybean producer.
Slower Brazilian soy area growth limits future export supply growth, which is supportive for soybean and meal prices, while weaker Asian hog-driven feed demand is a bearish offset.
ajot.comBloombergOct 3, 2019After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
