
Chicago soybean futures reached their highest level since mid-2024 in mid-March. Spot barge prices at the US Gulf fell on uncertainty over Chinese demand, and Brazilian supplies were cheaper.
Cargill suspended shipments of Brazilian soybeans to China over inspection changes.
Futures strength is set against weak physical export demand and Chinese buying uncertainty ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, so the price rally may not hold without firm export sales.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.