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The most-active CBOT soybean futures contract touched its highest price since June 2018 on Thursday, driven by short covering and hopes of increased Chinese purchases. Details on the timing and size of Chinese buying under the Phase 1 trade deal remain unknown, and some analysts doubt China will reach the $40-50 billion purchase target.
Strength in Malaysian palm oil also supported soy, while favorable South American weather limited gains.
Expected Chinese buying under the Phase 1 deal lifts US soybean prices, which raises the cost of soybean meal feed inputs, though doubts about volume cap the rally.
financialpost.comReutersDec 26, 2019After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 133 past bullish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
