Trump’s trade war sees US soybean exports heading south

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 29, 2019Local ports see 'dramatic hit' to soybean exports during US-China trade war+3.0%
• Apr 26, 2025Trump trade war sinking key commodity exports like pork and soybeans-0.1%
• Nov 6, 2019Panamax rates slide as trade war bites into US soybean exports to China-1.7%
• Jan 16, 2018For US Soybean Growers, Trade War Is Here+4.3%
• Feb 1, 2017Trump trade plans, South America crops could hurt U.S. farm exports+1.8%

After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Nov 12, 2018U.S. soybean farmers hang on for dear life in Trump's China trade war+1.7%
• May 28, 2019Trade war drives need for South American soybean derivs | FOW+6.7%
• Nov 22, 2018Trump's China trade war forces U.S. soybeans to take costly detour+0.1%
• Jun 25, 2019China’s US soybean and pork imports down 55.3 per cent due to trade war, African swine fever | South China Morning Post-4.0%
• Aug 7, 2025China soybean imports hit record July high on strong Brazil exports, US trade uncertainties | Reuters+4.3%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.