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US soybean and pork export sales to China fell sharply in the week of April 11-17, with net soybean sales down 50% week over week and net pork sales down 72%. The USDA data show the decline is tied to tariffs, with no explicit farm relief announced yet.
The trade war is seen as larger than the 2018 dispute.
Lost Chinese demand for US soybeans and pork weakens US export flows and pressures soybean and hog prices. Sustained losses would shift soybean trade toward Brazil and could add pressure to feed-grain balances.
axios.comBen Berkowitz, Monica EngApr 26, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
