
Soybean futures retreated from two-week highs on May 28 as US-China tensions over trade and Hong Kong grew. China continued to buy Brazilian beans, with 5.939 million tons imported in April, and analysts expect Beijing to import about nine million tons a month from Brazil until July.
China's shift toward Brazilian supply reduces its reliance on US beans, which caps US soybean demand and pressures prices, though the market is still down over 11% year to date.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.